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By ANFET Transitional Editorial Desk – October 23, 2025
A Graduation with Political Weight
According to Addis Standard (13h, Oct. 2025), the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization (RSADO) announced the graduation of a new cohort of fighters after three months of training. RSADO commander Ibrahim Haroun praised the recruits’ discipline and determination, calling the event “a step toward strengthening the organization’s military capabilities.”
Haroun reiterated RSADO’s mission to defend Red Sea Afar communities and resist what he described as Eritrean government repression. He also revealed plans to develop naval capabilities, a bold ambition in a region where Eritrea’s navy has long dominated the Red Sea coastline (Addis Standard).
Calls for Unity Among Eritrean Opposition
In the same statement, Haroun urged Eritrean opposition movements to unite under a common front, accusing the Eritrean government of threatening peace and stability in the Horn of Africa. RSADO expressed gratitude to the Afar regional government and people of Ethiopia, calling their solidarity “a key pillar” in sustaining the organization’s activities (Addis Standard).
Meanwhile, Tigray Broadcast Service reported that Eritrean forces have been repositioning near Welkayit and Omhajer, with speculation that Eritrea is preparing for renewed clashes. The broadcast highlighted that “Shaebia has returned to Welkayit” — a phrase that underscores the perception of Eritrean redeployment and the widening scope of the conflict.
The Burie Visit: Coordination or Contradiction?
Adding to the complexity, Redwan Hussein (Ethiopia’s National Security Adviser) and Getachew Reda (Former President of the Tigray Interim Administration/Current PM Abiye National Security advisor on the Horn) recently visited Burie, a sensitive border town with Eritrea. The visit was officially framed as a development mission, emphasizing reconstruction and normalization.
Yet, the timing — coinciding with RSADO’s military graduation and Eritrea’s defensive mobilization — casts doubt on coordination of mission between Ethiopia’s federal leadership, regional administrations, and insurgent allies. The juxtaposition of development rhetoric in Burie with military escalation in Afar and Tigray raises questions about whether Ethiopia is pursuing a coherent Red Sea strategy, or whether competing agendas are unfolding in parallel.
Positive Signals
Military Readiness: RSADO demonstrates capacity to mobilize, and train disciplined fighters.
Strategic Vision: Naval training, though risky, signals foresight in contesting Eritrea’s maritime dominance.
Political Legitimacy: RSADO’s membership in umbrella organizations EPF positions it as more than a military faction.
Grassroots Support: Public acknowledgment of Afar regional backing strengthens RSADO’s local legitimacy.
Risks and Contradictions
Ethiopian Calculations: RSADO’s activities cannot proceed without tacit approval from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, raising questions about Ethiopia’s broader Red Sea strategy.
Operational Exposure: Publicly announcing new fighters and naval ambitions may undermine guerrilla warfare advantages by inviting Eritrean counter-operations.
Alliance Ambiguity: RSADO’s relationship with the Eritrean Political Forces (EPF) remains unclear, especially after EPF’s recent declarations.
Regional Escalation: Eritrea has reinforced its defenses at Assab and Omhajer, signaling readiness for confrontation.
Fragmented Opposition: While RSADO calls for unity, its simultaneous invitation to join EPF risks confusing allies and weakening cohesion.
Broader Implications
For Eritrea: The regime faces renewed insurgent threats inland and potentially along its Red Sea coastline.
For Ethiopia: Addis Ababa’s ambiguous stance — supporting Afar groups while showcasing development visits to border towns — could either strengthen its leverage or expose contradictions in policy.
For the Opposition: RSADO’s initiative underscores the urgency of documented, transparent agreements among opposition forces to build trust and avoid fragmentation.
For the Region: The Horn of Africa risks sliding into another cycle of proxy warfare, with Afar fighters becoming a frontline force in a broader geopolitical contest.
Conclusion
- RSADO’s graduation of fighters is both a symbolic and practical escalation. It signals determination among Eritrean opposition groups but also exposes them to heightened risks. The balance between military ambition, political unity, and regional diplomacy will determine whether this development strengthens the opposition’s cause or deepens instability along the Ethio-Eritrean front.
