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ANFET Editorial: December 9th, 2025
The Eritrean National Council for Democratic Change (ENCDC) enters its third congress at a decisive moment. Two years ago, as a member of the Eritrean Political Forces (EPF), it was poised to participate in a unity congress that promised to bring together the full spectrum of Eritrean political and civic movements in the diaspora. The EPF, then chaired by ENCDC’s Executive Head Mr. Negash Osman, carried the hopes of many that the long-awaited national assembly would finally materialize. Yet disputes over representation and unresolved internal differences forced ENCDC to step back, with assurances from its Central Committee Chair Mr. Teklai Abraha that reconciliation would be possible in due course.
When the remaining EPF organizations proceeded to hold their first national conference, the expectation was that ENCDC would soon rejoin. Instead, the differences proved more entrenched than anticipated. To avoid further complications, the EPF leadership chose to retain its title rather than adopt the name “Eritrean National Conference,” signaling that unity remained elusive. Against this backdrop, ENCDC’s decision to convene its third congress—hybrid, virtual, and in-person in Stockholm—marks both a renewal of its organizational life and a test of its ability to influence the broader opposition landscape.
The congress is taking place at a time when internal tensions have subsided enough to allow factions to come together. Yet the visions for the future remain divergent. Four scenarios dominate the debate:
Scenario One: Expansion into a Giant Umbrella
Some envision ENCDC transforming into a broad, Awasa-like umbrella, inviting other organizations to join by the time of a fourth congress within a year. This path would project inclusivity and ambition, positioning ENCDC as the nucleus of a national assembly. The risk, however, lies in overextension—without careful management, the effort could collapse under the weight of competing interests.
Scenario Two: Successive Leadership without Long Vision
Another faction favors rotating leadership among diverse groups to ensure fairness and representation. While this approach prevents dominance by any single faction, it risks producing a leadership that is reactive rather than visionary. Without a long-term strategy, ENCDC could stagnate, losing credibility in the eyes of both the diaspora and the Eritrean people.
Scenario Three: Rejoining EPF for a Unified Congress
A third possibility is reconciliation with EPF, resolving internal disputes and rejoining within six months to convene a unified congress. This scenario offers the greatest potential for credibility and strength, signaling to Eritreans and the international community that opposition forces can overcome fragmentation. Yet it requires compromise and trust-building, which have proven difficult in the past.
Scenario Four: Independent Consolidation
Finally, some argue for ENCDC to consolidate itself, strengthen its image, and continue independently, forging Memoranda of Understanding with allies while maintaining the struggle against the regime in Asmara. This path emphasizes organizational stability and autonomy, but risks isolation and diminished influence in the broader opposition movement.
Each scenario carries implications not only for ENCDC but for the entire Eritrean opposition. The choice between unity and fragmentation will determine whether the diaspora can present a credible alternative to the regime. International partners, regional states, and Eritrean communities at home and abroad are watching closely.
The congress in Stockholm is therefore more than a routine gathering—it is a crossroads. ENCDC must decide whether to pursue inclusivity, compromise, or independence. The stakes are high: fragmentation benefits the regime, while unity strengthens the opposition’s hand. The coming days will reveal whether ENCDC can rise above past divisions and chart a course that inspires confidence, mobilizes support, and accelerates the struggle for democratic change.
Pros And Cons Discussions for Debate of the Week
Scenario One: Expansion into a Giant Umbrella
Pros:
This path projects ambition and inclusivity. By inviting other organizations to join under a broad ENCDC umbrella, it signals openness and positions ENCDC as the nucleus of a national assembly. It could accelerate unity by creating a recognizable platform that others feel compelled to join.
Cons:
The risk lies in overextension. Managing diverse groups under one umbrella requires strong organizational discipline and trust, which ENCDC has struggled with in the past. Without careful planning, expansion could lead to fragmentation rather than consolidation, undermining credibility.
Scenario Two: Successive Leadership without Long Vision
Pros:
Rotating leadership among factions ensures fairness and prevents dominance by any single group. It can reduce internal tensions and give all voices a chance to be heard, which may foster short-term stability.
Cons:
This approach risks producing leadership that is reactive rather than visionary. Without a long-term strategy, ENCDC could stagnate, losing momentum and credibility. The opposition needs more than fairness—it needs direction. A leadership model without vision may satisfy internal factions but fail to inspire the Eritrean people or international partners.
Scenario Three: Rejoining EPF for a Unified Congress
Pros:
Reconciliation with EPF offers the greatest potential for credibility and strength. A unified congress would demonstrate that Eritrean opposition forces can overcome fragmentation, sending a powerful message to the diaspora, to Eritreans inside the country, and to international partners. It would restore momentum and create a stronger collective front against the regime.
Cons:
Past differences were not easily resolved, and compromise requires trust-building that may be difficult to achieve. There is a risk that old disputes could resurface, derailing unity once again. The process demands patience, negotiation, and a willingness to prioritize collective goals over factional interests.
Scenario Four: Independent Consolidation
Pros:
Consolidating ENCDC as a standalone organization strengthens its internal structures and identity. It allows ENCDC to improve its image, build credibility, and continue the struggle independently, forging alliances through Memoranda of Understanding. This path emphasizes stability and autonomy, ensuring ENCDC remains a visible actor in the opposition.
Cons:
Operating alone risks isolation. Without broader unity, ENCDC’s impact may be limited, and its ability to mobilize Eritrean communities or influence international partners could diminish. Independence may preserve organizational survival but will not transform the political landscape.
Strategic Implications
The choice between these scenarios is not merely organizational, it is existential. Fragmentation benefits the regime in Asmara, while unity strengthens the opposition’s hand. Scenario Three, rejoining EPF, offers the most strategic path to credibility and collective strength. Scenario One, expansion, could serve as a fallback if reconciliation proves impossible. Scenario Two risks stagnation, and Scenario Four risks isolation.
The Stockholm congress is therefore a test of ENCDC’s ability to rise above past divisions and chart a course that inspires confidence. The debate in the coming days must focus not only on what is possible, but on what is necessary: a credible, unified opposition capable of mobilizing Eritreans everywhere and convincing the world that democratic change is within reach.
